In the debate session in the afternoon of October 28, 2022, reporting to the National Assembly (NA) and the general public on the management of the interest rates the credit policy and the exchange rate, Governor Nguyen Thi Hong of the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) shared that the year 2022 had witnessed much bigger and more challenging developments than what was projected at the end of 2021.
SBV Governor Nguyen Thi Hong
According to some statistics, about 80 countries around the world have been experiencing double digit inflation rates. In response to the inflation, many major central banks have accelerated the process of tightening the monetary policy and raised the key interest rates. Especially, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has increased the federal funds target rate five times, and it is indicative that the rate could continue to be raised to a high level of about 4.5% - 4.7% by mid-2023. The appreciation of the USD has put pressure on the common interest rates; many currencies have depreciated by about 10%-30%, etc.
In the domestic market, the corporate bond market, the real estate and the stock markets have all experienced complicatedly developments, causing significant influence on the monetary and banking operations. In the context of hiking interest rates around the world, the SBV has an important task of managing the monetary policy in the direction of trying to reduce the interest rates by 0.5 – 1% p.a. for the 2022-2023 period. This is really a difficult task in the current context.
During nine months of 2022, the SBV had managed the monetary instruments in a consistent and flexible manner in accordance with the macro-economic developments, thereby contributing to controlling the inflation at an average level of 2.73% for the 9 months, and it is estimated to be below 4% for the whole 2022, which is much lower than that of other countries in the region and in the world.
Credit growth for nine months of 2022 had increased by over 11% as compared to that of the same period of 2021; the credit growth for the whole year may increase by 16-17%, which is a very high level. This is also a factor contributing to the economic growth, which is expected to reach 8% for the whole year.
About the exchange rate, the SBV has been closely monitoring the market developments and managing the exchange rate in a flexible manner in order to maintain the stability in the money and forex markets.
In nine months of 2022, the liquidity of the banking system had been ensured and there was even a surplus of liquidity. Although the common interest rates had not gone down, the increase had been kept at 0.3-0.4% as compared to the rates at the end of the previous year.
However, in October 2022, the money and forex markets experienced strong fluctuations. According to the SBV, it is mainly due to the impacts of the psychology of expectations. In particular, there had been false information, which had negatively affected the operations of the credit institutions, as well as the market developments, especially in the forex market.
In this situation, the SBV has also proactively and flexibly assessed and determined the key tasks for this period, which are to ensure a prudent banking system and stay ready to provide liquidity to meet the payment demands of the credit institutions.
For the forex market, the SBV has continued to operate this market in a proactive and flexible manner, allowing the exchange rate to fluctuate more flexibly. In that context, the central bank has to raise the key interest rates to maintain the stability of the exchange rate and the forex market.
The SBV Governor emphasized that the overall and consistent goals are to control the inflation, maintain the macro-economic stability, and ensure the safety of the banking sector in order to contribute to the socio-economic development.
Talking about the solutions to remove the difficulties for the oil and gasoline businesses, the SBV Governor proposed that the Ministry of Industry and Trade analyze and evaluate the causes leading to such phenomenon and suggest appropriate solutions. In terms of the credit management, the SBV has always given high priority to the production and business activities, including the oil and gasoline business.
About the 2% interest rate support program, the SBV had recently conducted inter-ministerial surveys in various provinces. The results showed that in some provinces, out of 183 customers being eligible for accessing the support package, there were 126 customers who were not interested in the interest rate support package, 46 customers had not responded yet. In the coming time, the SBV would evaluate and make a general report to be submitted to the Government and the National Assembly.
Le Hang